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TWI Arabic: اللغة العربية Fikra Forum

لبنان

Policy Analysis on لبنان

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Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.
Articles & Testimony
Behind the US Plan to Prevent an All-Out Israel-Hezbollah War
An American-led diplomatic initiative to separate their forces at the border appears to be falling short, and time is running out.
۲۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
A protester's shadow falls across the flag of the Republic of Cyprus - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Threatens Cyprus: Capabilities, Intentions, and Potential Consequences
If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.
۲۱ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • David Schenker
A man rides a scooter by a Hamas poster in a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, May 18, 2024.
Brief Analysis
The Muslim Brothers Give Hamas a Foothold in Lebanon
Most Lebanese Sunnis have resisted the MB’s mobilization so far, but this sentiment could shift quickly due to pressures from the Gaza war, the economic crisis, the local political vacuum, and the inroads being made by Hamas and Hezbollah.
۱۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Thumbnail image of Google Map depicting Israeli and Hezbollah strikes across the Israel-Lebanon border since October 7, 2023
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Mapping Clashes Along the Israel-Lebanon Border
A regularly updated visual tracker of northern border attacks by Hezbollah, the IDF, and Palestinian groups during the Hamas-Israel war.
۴ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Ana Estrada Hamm
  • Miller Greene
  • Audrey Kost
  • Elizabeth Surman
Nasrallah Ashura speech
Brief Analysis
How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations
The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.
۱۶ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
UNIFIL peacekeepers in Lebanon in front of a poster depicting Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
An Israel-Lebanon Agreement May Not Be Worth the Costs
The lesson from past deals involving Hezbollah is clear: the group will try to pocket any U.S. concessions on the presidency and other issues while simply jettisoning whatever border commitments it may make in return.
۱۴ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
Bourj Hammoud neighborhood, Beirut
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Protecting Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Given the breakdown of the Lebanese state, Arab countries' normalization with Assad, and the fragmentation of the Syrian opposition, it seems that the United States can step in to play a pivotal role in protecting Syrian refugees facing persecution.
۸ مهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ammar Musarea
U.S. President Joe Biden greets French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House in December, 2022 - source: White House
Brief Analysis
U.S.-French Cooperation on Preventing an Israel-Hezbollah War
Washington and Paris have been pursuing convergent efforts to avoid all-out war, but more coordination is advisable and seems increasingly likely after the latest escalation.
۲۶ آوریل ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Selin Uysal
Articles & Testimony
Will Israel Temper Its War on Iran’s Regional Proxies?
Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and other militias in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq have yielded visible benefits at times, but future operations may elicit a direct Iranian response.
۲۴ آوریل ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
A photo illustration depicts Israeli and Palestinian flags - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Changing the Israel-Lebanon Status Quo: U.S. Options
From exploring land border talks to boosting Israel’s arsenal and recasting UNIFIL, Washington should do more to slow what may be an inevitable slide toward war on this front.
۱ آوریل ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
Energean's floating production unit, FPSO, is seen offshore Israel in the eastern Mediterranean in June 2022 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Israeli Gas Field Near Lebanon Starts Production
The floating storage vessel anchored above the offshore field could be a tempting target for Hezbollah.
۴ مارس ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Israeli flag, Hezbollah flag, implied Lebanon border
Maps & Graphics
گزارش‌های تفصیلی
تقویت دیپلماسی آمریکا برای جلوگیری از جنگ بین حزب‌الله و اسرائیل
تنها یک ابتکار جامع با هدف محدود کردن نفوذ حزب‌الله در لبنان و منطقه، فرصتی برای برقراری صلح بلندمدت را به دنبال خواهد داشت.
۲۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • حنین غدار
ROUMIEH prison
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A Pathway to Addiction: Tracing Drug-Trafficking Networks in Lebanon’s Roumieh Prison
Roumieh’s drug networks have been an ongoing and pervasive challenge for Lebanon.
۲۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Fatima al-Othman
Leaders assemble for the France-sponsored Baghdad Conference in August 2021 - source: Government of Iraq
Brief Analysis
France’s Diplomatic Role in the Middle East Post-October 7
In Gaza, Lebanon, and beyond, Paris continues to favor multilateral approaches that incorporate key regional partners, though it understands Washington’s paramount role in achieving regional stability.
۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Selin Uysal
Hezbollah March
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How Iran-Backed Groups Control the Arabic Language Sphere on X
Until Twitter’s moderation policies are strictly enforced and moderation loopholes addressed, coordinated efforts will continue to target independent anti-Hezbollah and anti-Hamas voices on X/Twitter while effectively sharing their own messaging, thus ensuring that in the Middle East, Iran-backed actors maintain their grip on the site.
۲۶ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Samara Azzi
تحلیل کوتاه
مرگ یک رهبر حماس در بیروت
صالح العاروری دهه‌ها به عنوان یک عضو ارشد عملیاتی به حماس خدمت می‌کرد، و از دست دادن او چالش‌هایی برای حماس و نیز حزب‌الله ایجاد خواهد کرد.
۱۲ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • حنین غدار
  • ماتیو لویت
Unarmed UN staff from the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization stand near a Blue Line marker on the Israel-Lebanon borner - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Red-Hot Blue Line
As the Israel-Lebanon frontier teeters on the brink, Washington and its partners need to urgently exhaust all diplomatic options to prevent war—but without resorting to false remedies or giving Beirut and the LAF a pass for their worsening collusion.
۱۱ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Lebanese flag
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
In the Shadow of Hezbollah-Israel Escalation, Poll Shows Slim Majority of Lebanese Still Want Focus on Domestic Reforms over “Foreign Wars”
The question of Hezbollah’s role in the conflict—or relative lack thereof—is a matter of interpretation within Lebanon. In contrast, support for Hamas is more widespread across Lebanese society, although very positive views are especially concentrated in the Shia community.
۸ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Catherine Cleveland
Drainage system in Sidon, Lebanon
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Devastating Impact of Lebanon’s Environmental Failures
International cooperation and support—with appropriate safeguarding measures to prevent the misappropriation of funds—are crucial for Lebanon to effectively combat environmental degradation and work toward a more sustainable future.
۸ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Peter S. Germanos
  • Samara Azzi
Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.
Articles & Testimony
The World Prepares for Gaza War Escalation
The players have climbed another rung on the escalatory ladder in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, exacerbating worries about a wider regional conflict and more serious economic effects.
۷ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker

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