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لبنان

Policy Analysis on لبنان

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Articles & Testimony
Lebanon Headed Towards Promised Sovereignty
Choosing a reform-minded president would be a good first step, but absent a concerted effort to consolidate the setbacks to Hezbollah, the organization will simply reassert its murderous grip.
۸ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • David Schenker
Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A Fateful Debate in Tehran
After blows to Iranian proxies across the region, reformists led by President Pezeshkian are prioritizing diplomacy and economic recovery, whereas hardliners are lamenting lost battlefield opportunities and seeking to preserve the regime.
۳۰ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Brief Analysis
Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut
Tehran’s past efforts to reconstitute the group have passed through more difficult environments than post-Assad Syria, but an economical U.S.-led effort can complicate future smuggling efforts and further other counterterrorism goals in the process.
۱۲ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Syria Is the First Major Aftershock of October 7—With More to Come?
From stability in Jordan to the future of Kurdish autonomy, Lebanese sovereignty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation, officials must prepare quickly to prevent or manage—and in some cases even encourage—further shocks in the Middle East.
۱۱ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Zohar Palti
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah Post October 7—Beaten But Still Dangerous
The group has been greatly diminished by a year of war, but the Lebanese people won’t feel the difference unless the international community pushes Beirut and the LAF to reestablish trust and authority.
۱۰ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Members of the Israeli delegation at the Tripartite Conference in 2006 - source: Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Back to the Future in Lebanon? Ceasefire Lessons from 2006
The former head of Israel’s “tripartite” delegation reflects on the slow-rolling failures that followed the 2006 ceasefire—lessons that can help authorities overcome similar obstacles to the new agreement.
۶ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Assaf Orion
An Israeli border guard secures the gate at a crossing with Lebanon in 2007 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Lebanon Ceasefire: Managing Israeli Public Expectations and U.S. Coordination
In addition to assuaging public fears about the agreement, officials will need to reach a shared understanding with Washington about how to enforce its terms and respond to Hezbollah violations.
۵ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Makovsky
Photo showing smoke clearing from Beirut during the 2024 Hezbollah-Israel war.
Video
Brief Analysis
The Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire and U.S. Leadership: What Comes Next
Four experts discuss the agreement’s detailed security provisions, the prospects for successful implementation, and the potential impact on other regional players.
۴ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Assaf Orion
  • Matthew Levitt
President Donald Trump meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
How the Trump Factor Pushed Israel Towards Lebanon Ceasefire
The Biden White House brokered the deal, but Trump’s return is significantly influencing Binyamin Netanyahu’s actions.
۱ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dennis Ross
A photo illustration depicts Israeli and Palestinian flags - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
How to End the Third Lebanon War—and Prevent the Fourth
The security arrangements set forth by Resolution 1701 and other past accords need to be beefed up and, more important, enforced—a task that may require an international “action group” willing to operate beyond the Security Council’s limitations.
۲۹ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.
Articles & Testimony
Taking the War to Hezbollah: What It Might, and Might Not, Achieve
Drawing on lessons from the 2006 war, Israel should focus on strategic outcomes such as better securing its border with Lebanon.
۲۷ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Secretary of State Antony Blinken
Brief Analysis
How Blinken Can Seize Opportunity After the Deaths of Sinwar and Nasrallah
The United States has a short window to advance crucial goals in Gaza and Lebanon, including efforts to draw in Gulf support, establish a legitimate post-Hamas entity, and urge Beirut to start reasserting its sovereignty.
۲۲ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Makovsky
U.S. President Joe Biden greets French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House in December, 2022 - source: White House
Brief Analysis
Assessing U.S.-French Cooperation a Year After October 7
Fighting on several Middle East fronts has revealed gaps between the allies, but they have ample room to collaborate in areas that range from ensuring Lebanese sovereignty to delivering humanitarian aid.
۱۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Souhire Medini
Articles & Testimony
The Day After in Lebanon
Absent a policy shift in Beirut, Lebanon will remain a satrapy of Iran, and the current window of opportunity to eradicate the Hezbollah threat will close.
۱۳ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
A Roadmap to an Enduring Ceasefire in Lebanon
Border security is chiefly a matter of state sovereignty, so the international community must pressure Lebanese officials to take essential political and security steps even before attempting to negotiate ceasefire terms with Israel.
۹ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
In Lebanon, a Rare Moment of Opportunity
Israel’s campaign has greatly diminished Hezbollah, presenting a chance for Beirut to end the war and push back against the group and its Iranian sponsors—if Lebanese elites are up to the task.
۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
Unarmed UN staff from the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization stand near a Blue Line marker on the Israel-Lebanon borner - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Capitalizing on the Weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah
The massive losses suffered by two key members of Iran’s “axis of resistance” create an opening to transform more than just Gaza and Lebanon.
۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Secretary of State Antony Blinken places a tile that reads "Light in the darkness" on a wall at the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi, October 14, 2023.
Video
Brief Analysis
U.S. Policy in the Post-October 7 Middle East: Looking Back, Looking Forward
Three former U.S. officials discuss the challenges—and opportunities—that will greet the next administration in year two of the post-October 7 era.
۷ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dennis Ross
  • Dana Stroul
  • David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
After Hezbollah’s Miscalculations, It Has Lost Much of Its Power
The group’s false assessment of Israel’s wartime fragility is proving more costly by the day.
۱ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Photo of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah onscreen while addressing a 2017 event.
Articles & Testimony
6 Consequences of Israel Killing Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah
By building on the death of an Iran-backed terrorist leader, President Biden has the opportunity to leave the Middle East better today than it was on October 8, which is no small achievement.
۳۰ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Robert Satloff

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